An Analysis of Career Choice in U.S. State Legislatures, 1986-2002.

I examine career choice in state legislatures, employing multinomial logit to model simultaneously reelection, retirement, and higher office seeking decisions in eighteen state upper chambers from 1986-2002. There are several notable preliminary findings. First, salary influences career decisions, with legislators less likely to retire as salary increases. This is a new finding, as Congress studies omit salary due to lack of variation. Second, majority status has little influence on careers decisions. Third, career decisions are highly sensitive to the relative probability of victory. In particular, redistricting substantially increases the probability of retirement and seeking higher office, especially where courts and nonpartisan commissions control redistricting. Fourth, progressive ambition is remarkably strong, with legislators responsive to the opportunities provided by open seats in Congress and in statewide offices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]