Managing Civil Wars: An Evaluation of Conflict Prevention Strategies in Africa.

The present discussion addresses the conditions for successful preventive diplomacy in a manner that: a) gives a better understanding of when and why certain conflict prevention strategies succeed, and b) develops an integrated policy-operations framework that can be adapted to individual conflicts. The analysis is applied to a comparative study of conflicts in Somalia, Rwanda, and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa focusing on how preventive diplomacy failed to thwart bloodshed in the former two cases and succeeded in precluding the escalation of violence in the latter. Causal inferences are made based on the case study evidence and the hypothesis is confirmed that where conflict prevention worked, it was the result of informed analysis and understanding of the situation; where it failed, there was a lack of political will and an analytical framework. Based on this assessment, the study concludes by proposing conditions that when present increase the likelihood of successful conflict prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]