Caracterización espacial del desplazamiento forzado en Colombia durante el periodo 1984-2016.

Considering forced displacement as the historical event with the highest number of victims in the Colombian armed conflict, a spatial characterisation of this phenomenon was conducted for the period 1984 - 2016. Official data from the Registro Único de Víctimas and the Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica were analysed by applying spatial analysis methods namely spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I, Geary's c) and weighted mean centre (centre of gravity). The identified spatial patterns have shown that the phenomenon mainly responds to disputes amongst different armed actors because of territorial control of areas considered geostrategic within the framework of the Colombian armed conflict. In addition, the results of the correlation analysis suggest that forced displacement is motivated by victimising events as forced disappearance, threats, crimes against liberty and sexual integrity, homicide, and massacres. The spatial analysis results are linked to historical and social milestones as well as documented victimising events that contextualise the identified patterns. This article shows through spatial statistics that forced displacement is not a random phenomenon; in contrast it follows a cluster-like spatial pattern that reveals how such phenomenon has affected different areas of Colombia in a more localized way, depending on the period analysed. The analysis identifies as the primary nuclei of displacement the region of Magdalena Medio; the sub-regions of Urabá, Alto Sinú, San Jorge, and Montes de María; the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta; the Pacific Coast (Litoral Pacífico); and the former zone of détente. Forced displacement is a permanent phenomenon in the Colombian national territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]