Time series analysis on amount palm oil production data in East Kalimantan.

Palm oil is one of the plantation subsectors playing an important role in Indonesia. Palm oil is one of the largest exports and contributes to Indonesia's GDP. One of the palm oil producing areas is East Kalimantan, where production is increasing year by year. Time series analysis can be used to forecast palm oil production in East Kalimantan. This study would compare singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to predict palm oil production in East Kalimantan. Based on data analysis, the SSA method hasd a MAPE of 2.3476 percent and the ARIMA model had a MAPE of 7.1214 percent. These results showed that the SSA method is superior to ARIMA in predicting palm oil production in East Kalimantan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]