Risk modeling in the national safety standards for the housing stock of Russia.

Safety aspects are analyzed in the article in accordance with the national standard GOST R 51898-2002. This regulatory documentation presents the concept of safety, and also answers the question of how to achieve an acceptable level of risk. The article presents the basic concepts of riskology. The positive aspects of the document are noted. However, the problem is in the fact that risk analysts cannot be guided by the specified standard due to its underdevelopment and inconsistency with the universal international standard ISO 31000:2018 "Risk management – Guidelines". The formula "risk is a combination of probability and consequences" does not work one hundred percent, since in many cases the risks are not linearly comparable. It becomes unclear which risk is considered acceptable and which is not. An approach based on scenario to risk assessment should be developed that describes the interaction of different possible scenarios (for example, in the case of developing forecasts for the housing stock). In general, one cannot speak of a risk as acceptable disregarding the combination with the costs and benefits that accompany a particular risk. Risk cannot be understood without considering a two-dimensional combination of (1) events and (2) the consequences of those events, as well as the associated (3) uncertainties, which is broadly consistent with the meaning of the ISO standard 31000:2018. As for the assessment and analysis of environmental risk presented in the national standard GOST R 14.09-2005 "Ecological management – Guidelines", the development of a scenario approach in each specific case is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]