近40 年增暖背景下岷江流域降水异常变化.

Climate change is an essential trigger for mountain disasters (e.g., landslides and debris flow) in South⁃ west China, especially in the Minjiang River Basin. Using the daily observations of 47 meteorological stations, we disclose the spatial temporal variation of precipitation under the background of warming in the Minjiang River Ba⁃ sin during 1979－2018. Then we detect the trend and abrupt change of precipitation extremes, years with precipitation anomaly, and the frequency of drought flood shifts based on a statistical analysis of eleven indexes for precipitation extremes. Moreover, we discuss the impact of climate change on typical events of mountain disasters. Our re⁃ search demonstrates that the temperature generally increased in the Minjiang River Basin over the past four de⁃ cades, particularly in the upper reaches where the prominent landform is mountainous. Furthermore, the spring and winter precipitation raised significantly with the maximum increment in the upstream and the mountainous regions west of the midstream. Meanwhile, the amount and intensity of precipitation extremes increased for mountain stations in the upper reaches, which is related to the more active Southwest Vortex, especially the Jiulong Vortex. In addition, the frequency of drought flood shifts increased remarkably during 1979－2018. Therefore, the mountain disasters were more prone to break out with the magnification of disaster risks due to the combination of significant temperature and precipitation increase in the basin′s upper reaches and the enhanced precipitation extremes in high mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]