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COVID-19 infected cases in Canada: Short-term forecasting models.

Authors :
Bata, Mo'tamad H.
Carriveau, Rupp
Ting, David S.-K.
Davison, Matt
Smit, Anneke R.
Source :
PLoS ONE. 9/22/2022, Vol. 17 Issue 9, p1-16. 16p.
Publication Year :
2022

Abstract

Governments have implemented different interventions and response models to combat the spread of COVID-19. The necessary intensity and frequency of control measures require us to project the number of infected cases. Three short-term forecasting models were proposed to predict the total number of infected cases in Canada for a number of days ahead. The proposed models were evaluated on how their performance degrades with increased forecast horizon, and improves with increased historical data by which to estimate them. For the data analyzed, our results show that 7 to 10 weeks of historical data points are enough to produce good fits for a two-weeks predictive model of infected case numbers with a NRMSE of 1% to 2%. The preferred model is an important quick-deployment tool to support data-informed short-term pandemic related decision-making at all levels of governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
19326203
Volume :
17
Issue :
9
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
PLoS ONE
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
159264914
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270182