Beyond the lag. How to predict and understand evolutions towards good governance?

Perception aggregated indicators like Corruption Perception Index have low specificity and actionability and even lower sensitivity to change due to their nature of aggregates of experts cores. The 2017 Index for Public Integrity, although more specific, is also not optimal to trace change across time due to its aggregation. After tracing each component of the index separately this paper proposes a trends analysis and a forecast based on disaggregated IPI component rather than the index itself. Using 12 years as a time interval and a three steps method a set of improvers, stationary and declining cases are proposed. The paper also suggests how the new tools should be used by promoters of good governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]