The complex dynamic of growth: Fitness and the different patterns of economic activity in the medium and long terms.

• We present a multinomial approach not previously used in the macroeconomic literature for the study of growth and industrial dynamic. • The successful growth dynamic observed during the 1995–2014 period in several emerging economies is very heterogeneous in terms of their industrial transformation. • Developed economies grew slowly and, generally, through episodes of limited industrial transformation. • The relationship between economic fitness and the countries' industrial and growth dynamics generates a path dependency in economic development. • The fitness score of a country –that moves very slowly during one or two decades– establishes the most common sequences of episodes to be observed. When analyzing countries' medium- and long-term economic performance, it is important to study jointly the dynamic of growth and the industrial evolution that determines how the productive structure changes over time. In this paper, we use the Economic Fitness metric to describe the competitiveness of the countries' industrial structure, and classify economic episodes, with five-years windows, to establish how countries grow (i.e., above or below a trend, and with a dynamic or static industrial structure.) We show a complex growth dynamic using data covering two decades (1995–2014) for a large set of countries. This pattern indicates that the observed sequences of spells vary substantially even between countries within the same growth regime (low, medium, and high). Moreover, we find a robust statistical relationship between these spells and Economic Fitness with a multinomial econometric model. In particular, we show that economies with higher fitness are more resilient since episodes of below-average growth and the net disappearance of competitive firms are less likely to happen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]