Political consensus, economic reforms, and democratic transitions in the Middle East: Evidence from voting on Tunisian reform bills.

This study investigates the role of political consensus in accelerating economic reforms and finds a significant negative effect of political consensus on the speed of reform votes in the parliament in Tunisia. We analyze the number of days until a reform bill was adopted in parliament to identify the causal effect of the consensus on accelerating reforms. Using an endogenous treatment effect model and an original database of reforms between 2012 and 2019 in Tunisia, we compare economic and social reforms with political reforms before and after the consensus. We find that political consensus is more likely to delay economic and social reforms than political reforms. This effect is driven mainly by informal mechanisms created by consensus and political instability that prevailed after the agreement. The findings indicate that consensus had a subversive effect on democratic institutions in Tunisia by creating informal processes that reduced public oversight, transparency, and law enforcement. Related Articles: Gazdar, Kaouthar, Rihab Grassa, and M. Kabir Hassan. 2021. "The Development of Islamic Finance in Tunisia after the Arab Spring: Does Political Islam Matter?" Politics & Policy 49(3): 682–707. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12408. Khodair, Amany Ahmed, Mostafa E. AboElsoud, and Mahmoud Khalifa. 2019. "The Role of Regional Media in Shaping Political Awareness of Youth: Evidence from Egypt." Politics & Policy 47(6): 1095–24. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12335. Sarquís, David J. 2012. "Democratization after the Arab Spring: The Case of Egypt's Political Transition." Politics & Policy 40(5): 871–903. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00381.x. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]