Beyond Prediction: Moderating Effects of Risk Factors, Demographic Variables and Type of Offense on Youth Recidivism in Spain.

In contrast to a large number of predictive analyses, most studies on recidivism do not include the moderating role variables exert on the probability of future recidivism. The present study was conducted to assess the influence of risk and protective factors, demographic variables, and the type of offense on recidivism. In addition, the moderating effect of demographic variables and the type of offense on the relationship between risk/protective factors and youth reoffending was also assessed. The Youth Level of Service of Case Management Inventory was administered to 210 Spanish minor offenders, aged between 14.00 and 18.07 years. Their subsequent charges were coded for 24 months. The sum-up of risk factors and younger age were the two variables that significantly contributed to predicting future recidivism. Meanwhile, gender and the type of crime were the variables that moderated the relationship between risk factors and recidivism. Priority prevention strategies should be aimed at reducing the impact of risk factors, especially among young boys committing violent offenses, as these are exacerbating characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]