Uso del Modelo de Holt-Winters como estrategia para la predicción de condiciones ambientales durante el proceso de almacenamiento del Cacao.

The project arises as a response to the business challenge presented to the University - Company - State Committee (CUUES) and the Research Results Transfer Office (OTRI), which expresses the need to have a technology-based system with the capacity to monitor and manage the cocoa traceability process during the storage and manufacture of chocolate. In view of the above, the objective of this article is to propose the use of the Holt-Winters model as a strategy to predict the behavior of environmental variables that could be present in the cocoa bean storage process, incorporating the use of techniques analysis supported in time series. According to the results obtained, the proposed model allowed predicting the behavior of temperature, relative humidity and dew temperature, as a strategy for the control of fungi and mold that could emerge in the grain during its storage. Additionally, the proposed model can be considered as a very important prediction tool during the cocoa traceability process, reaching adjustment levels higher than 0.9, accompanied by a very low standard error of estimation and with a confidence level of 95%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]