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Techno-financial evaluation of a hybrid renewable solution for supplying the predicted power outages by machine learning methods in rural areas.

Techno-financial evaluation of a hybrid renewable solution for supplying the predicted power outages by machine learning methods in rural areas.

Authors :
Tamjid Shabestari, Sara
Kasaeian, Alibakhsh
Vaziri Rad, Mohammad Amin
Forootan Fard, Habib
Yan, Wei-Mon
Pourfayaz, Fathollah
Source :
Renewable Energy: An International Journal. Jul2022, Vol. 194, p1303-1325. 23p.
Publication Year :
2022

Abstract

From a worldwide perspective, increasing grid reliability by applying renewable energies is one of the most affordable and environmentally-friendly options available for governments. In this study, the possible numbers of future rural power outages in Iran were predicted using machine learning methods based on nine different prediction models such as PLS Regression, Basian Ridge, and LARS Lasso. Then, the predicted blackouts were imported into the grid tool of HOMER software to analyze a common grid-connected HRES that includes PV, biodiesel generator, and battery bank under three power outage scenarios, including peak-time outages, planned outages, and random outages. The analyzed results until 2040 showed that using renewable sources to electrify possible annual blackouts under a day-hours planned power outage scheme can be an affordable solution with energy costs ranging from 0.066 to 0.070 $/kWh. With less than a 5% increase over the national energy tariff, more than 15% of the supplied electricity was renewable and without any blackouts. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis showed that the government must keep the power outage's mean repair time to less than 2 h to ensure the effective use of renewables and solve the increasing rural blackouts problem in the hot months of the year. • Nine linear regression machine learning methods are evaluated for outage prediction. • The summer possible outages by 2040 are estimated to be > 90 h per year in Iran. • Day-hours planned outage scenario showed proper compatibility with the hybrid system. • Optimized system has a 0.06 $/kWh energy cost and more than a 15% renewable fraction. • The CO 2 emissions are decreased by an average of 16–28% compared to the pure grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
09601481
Volume :
194
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Renewable Energy: An International Journal
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
157591616
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.160