The application of the CO2MPAS model for vehicle CO2 emissions estimation over real traffic conditions.

A vehicle simulation model, CO 2 MPAS supports the introduction of the new WLTP-based certification system for CO 2 emissions in Europe. This paper investigates the possibility to use the underlying simulation methodology to accurately calculate CO 2 emissions over real-world trips, thus to extend the use of the methodology beyond vehicle certification. As a reference, the analysis used measurement data obtained from four vehicles over two different routes under real-world driving conditions. The CO 2 emissions were measured using portable emissions measurement systems. The formal CO 2 MPAS methodology and two modified versions of it that require a reduced number of input data were assessed about their capacity to predict the measured CO 2 emissions. The analysis focused on the accuracy and uncertainty of the three different methodology configurations. As an additional benchmark, the analysis considered the CO 2 emissions estimates obtained from the EMEP/EEA Guidebook methodology used for emissions inventorying in Europe. Results show that the basic CO 2 MPAS configuration demonstrates good performance in predicting CO 2 emissions over on-road tests, reaching a prediction accuracy over an entire test trip of −0,3% and a standard deviation of 3,1%. The modified versions showed slightly higher biases up to 3% and uncertainties (5–7%), but remaining within reasonable limits considering the reduced number of inputs used in each case. Given its ability to predict CO 2 emissions accurately on a local base, CO 2 MPAS could be used for the prediction of instantaneous CO 2 emissions in traffic micro-simulation exercises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]