برآورد انتشار گازهای گلخانهای و بررسی سناریوهای کاهش انتشار سازگار با منطقه در افق 2030 میالدی )مطالعه موردی: استان گیالن، ایران(.

Background and Objective: Greenhouse gas emission estimation and submitting a regular national report on climate change has been underway since 2003. Given the importance of this issue, estimating emissions at the provincial level and assessing local emission management capacities will make the country more agile in reporting and emission control. Materials and Methods: The greenhouse gas emission in four sectors as energy, industry, agriculture, forestry and other landuse and wastes and all sub-sectors of these areas was determined in Guilan Province. The annual emission has been estimated using the 2019 activity data and the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) software. Results: The gross and per capita greenhouse gases’ emission of the province are 18.5 Mt and 7.31 tons per year carbon dioxide equivalent, respectively, so that the annual ecological supply of forests to capture greenhouse gases is estimated at 2 Mt. The thermal power plants, residential consumption (except electricity) and transportation sectors are the major emission sectors in the province with 36, 23 and 19% share, respectively. Out of four scenarios, the wind farms development scenario (nominal capacity 3 GW) and 10% energy savings in the residential sector reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 9% and 2.9%, respectively. The cumulative impact of all the proposed scenarios by 2030 will also lead to a 13% reduction in emissions compared to the current situation. Conclusion: Considering the existing capacities in the clean power generation and energy saving in the residential sector, it is possible to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by 13% by 2030. Since the proposed scenarios are regionalized and do not depend on management decisions in other provinces, they have good feasibility. Consequently, if clean power generation plans are established in other provinces and energy consumption management in the transport sector is applied at the national scale, it may be expected that the country's minimum commitments (4% reduction compared to 2010) will be met. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]