1961—2020年广西甘蔗干旱的时空变化特征分析.

[Objective] The present paper aimed to provide a scientific reference for drought prevention and disaster avoidance of sugarcane production, the temporal and spatial characteristics of sugarcane drought in different growth period in Guangxi were analyzed in recent 60 years. [Method] Firstly the development period of sugarcane, soil data and meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 in Guangxi were collected for the study. Under major concentration for effectiveness of precipitation and dynamic change characteristics of crop coeffi cient, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of sugarcane drought in growth period were analyzed by linear and periodic analysis method and spatial station technology basing on crop water deficit index. [Result] The interannual drought incidence was the highest in maturity stage, followed by stem elongation stage, and the least in seedling stage and in tillering stage. Light and medium drought are mainly in seedling stage, tillering stage and stem elongation stage. Heavy and extreme drought are mainly in maturity stage. During the study period, there was no obvious linear change trend in the interannual drought incidence at all levels and with a periodic change on the scale of 2 - 5 years. The years of occurrence were mainly in 1970s and 1980s. In terms of spatial distribution, in the seedling stage light drought and medium drought were mainly distributed in the west and south of Guangxi. The occurrence frequency of light drought was less than 40%. The occurrence frequency of medium drought was less than 30 % . The occurrence frequency of heavy drought was less than 10 % and its distribution range was small. In the tillering stage, light drought occurred in all over the region. The occurrence frequency in the southwest of Guangxi was the highest, generally between 21 % and 40%. Medium drought was mainly distributed in the southwest of Guangxi and the occurrence frequency was less than 10% . The occurrence frequency of severe drought was less than 10 % and its distribution range was small. In the stem elongation stage, mild drought was distributed in the whole region with the occurrence frequency between 11 % and 70%. Medium drought was mainly distributed in the northeast of Guangxi with the occurrence frequency between 21 % and 60%. Heavy drought was mainly distributed in the northeast of Guangxi with the occurrence frequency less than 20%. There was no extreme drought in the seedling stage, tillering stage and stem elongation stage during the study period. In the maturity stage, light drought, medium drought, heavy drought and extreme drought were distributed in whole study region. The occurrence frequency of light drought was less than 30%. The occurrence frequency of medium drought and severe drought were less than 40%. The occurrence frequency of extreme drought was the most and its distribution was wide. The regions with high extreme drought occurrence frequency were mainly distributed in the center, south and east of Guangxi with the occurrence frequency between 31 % and 50%. [Conclusion] The light and medium drought are the main drought in the seedling stage, tillering stage and stem elongation stage of sugarcane in Guangxi during the sugarcane development. The heavy and extreme drought is the main drought in the maturity stage. In the maturity stage of sugarcane, the heavy and extreme drought occur once every 2 - 3 years in the center, south and east of Guangxi. The regions above should be get more attention for drought prevention and disaster avoidance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]