MODELO PREDITIVO DE AVALIAÇÃO DO TEMPO ENTRE O DIAGNÓSTICO DO HIV E PRIMEIRA HOSPITALIZAÇÃO.

Objective: To build an evaluation predictive model of time between Human Immunodeficiency Virus diagnosis and first hospitalization. Methods: An epidemiological, descriptive, and retrospective study, with a sample of 200 medical records of people with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, monitored in a specialized service. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, the Weibull parametric model, and the Cox semi-parametric model. Results: There were significant differences in time between diagnosis and hospitalization regarding age, sexual orientation, therapy discontinuation records, and the number of medical and multidisciplinary consultations. The Weibull model presented the record of therapy discontinuity as a significant co-variable. In the Cox model, the occupation, alcohol and psychotropic use, T-CD4+ lymphocyte count, viral load, and psychiatric history variables were significant to explain the risk of hospitalization. Conclusion: It was possible to identify the risk and protection factors for the outcome hospitalization. The models also pointed out factors that influence the time between human immunodeficiency virus diagnosis and first hospitalization, and enabled an enriching discussion about the intrinsic aspects of health care for people living with the virus and the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]