Mitigation of climate change in Mediterranean existing social dwellings through numerical optimization of building stock models.

• Building stock modelling is implemented through a bottom-up method. • Dynamic simulations are applied through calibrated and parameterized stock models. • Optimal retrofit solutions under a 2050 future weather scenario are proposed. • Results are provided for four different climatic regions in southern Spain. • Results can be interactively accessed by stakeholders and the general public. Retrofitting the existing building stock is widely accepted as a crucial factor to reaching 2030 and 2050 climate and energy targets, given that the building sector is among the top three most dominant energy consumers. This paper presents a bottom-up study which uses calibrated and parameterized energy stock models (building archetypes), while also incorporating building stock information from a large database. The thermal performance of the existing social housing stock of southern Spain is assessed through dynamic simulation under present and future climate change scenarios. Subsequently, several passive and low-cost operation-related strategies are numerically optimized through genetic algorithms to determine the best retrofit solutions, taking into consideration global warming scenarios. A multi-objective decision analysis is carried out by optimizing annual overheating hours (%), annual undercooling hours (%), and investment costs (€/m2). Among the conclusions reported, it is important to note the feasibility of implementing low-cost retrofit strategies considering investment costs of up to around 200 €/m2, which would lead to average annual overheating and undercooling hours below 55 % and 45 %, respectively. However, retrofit solutions exclusively based on passive and low-cost operation measures were proven to be significantly limited to improve thermal comfort results in the social stock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]