Effects of climate change on vegetation patterns in Hulun Buir Grassland.

Climate change has resulted in instability of semi-arid ecosystems under global warming, especially during the last decades. Hulun Buir Grassland is suffering from prominent warming and drying. Therefore, it is vital to research the change of climate factors such as precipitation, temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations [ C O 2 ] on vegetation dynamics. A vegetation–climate dynamic model is applied in a typical semi-arid area of Hulun Buir Grassland in China to research the effects on vegetation distribution due to climate change. Various climate scenarios with representative concentration pathways (Current, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are compared. Temperature, precipitation and C O 2 fertilization effects play critical roles on vegetation growth. The vegetation pattern shows the synergies of temperature, precipitation and [ C O 2 ]. From our research, the vegetation pattern here may change from dense spot state to bare state. The ecosystem shows the fastest degradation under Current scenario, suggesting that Current scenario is the worst climate condition for vegetation growth there. However, the RCP2.6 scenario is an ideal climate state for vegetation growth in which the radiative forcing is low, precipitation increases slightly, and vegetation can grow well. • Our climate–vegetation model can simulate climate change driven vegetation pattern well. • Current scenario is the worst condition for vegetation growth among all scenarios here. • Increase in concentration of C O 2 will benefit vegetation growth here. • Vegetation pattern will not format after tipping-point due to climate factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]