Development of technology-explicit energy saving bandwidths: A case study for the pulp and paper sector.

[Display omitted] • Novel method to estimate total technical potential for improving energy efficiency. • Bottom-up sector energy model used to characterize energy demands and opportunities. • Technology-explicit analysis framework used to estimate integrated energy savings. • Application to Canada's pulp & paper sector indicates major savings are possible. • Technical potential to reduce natural gas use by 95% and net electricity by 54% Industrial energy efficiency has long been recognized as a critical tool for energy management and emissions reduction and is increasingly considered to be an energy resource in its own right. However, the complexity of most industrial sectors creates barriers for modellers, companies, and policymakers in understanding and achieving the overall potential for efficiency-driven energy savings. To address this gap, we have developed a novel method that combines disaggregated bottom-up sector energy modelling with analysis of a comprehensive set of technology-explicit energy efficiency measures. This approach overcomes the deficiencies of top-down analyses and better represents the complexities of multi-measure efficiency investments compared to piecewise studies of individual measures. In this study, we demonstrated application of our method to the case of the Canadian pulp and paper sector. Our analysis shows that the sector can reduce its natural gas and electricity use by 95% and 41%, respectively, by adopting economical efficiency measures. This equates to 71 PJ of natural gas and 44 PJ of electricity saved annually and would result in cost savings of $81 per tonne of output sector-wide. Notably, we find that efficiency and fuel switching have the technical potential to reduce natural gas consumption by 98% across the sector. Taken together, the results provide quantitative evidence that energy efficiency is an underestimated resource for cost-effective energy savings in the Canadian pulp and paper sector. Our analysis framework can be applied to any industrial sector in any region to provide insights regarding energy conservation strategies and policy design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]