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External evaluation of published population pharmacokinetic models of polymyxin B.
- Source :
-
European Journal of Clinical Pharmacology . Dec2021, Vol. 77 Issue 12, p1909-1917. 9p. 2 Charts, 3 Graphs. - Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Objectives: Several population pharmacokinetics (popPK) models for polymyxin B have been constructed to optimize therapeutic regimens. However, their predictive performance remains unclear when extrapolated to different clinical centers. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of polymyxin B popPK models. Methods: A literature search was conducted, and the predictive performance was determined for each selected model using an independent dataset of 20 patients (92 concentrations) from the Third Xiangya Hospital. Prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics were used to evaluate model predictability. The influence of prior information was assessed using Bayesian forecasting. Results: Eight published studies were evaluated. In prediction-based diagnostics, the prediction error within ± 30% was over 50% in two models. In simulation-based diagnostics, the prediction- and variability-corrected visual predictive check (pvcVPC) showed satisfactory predictivity in three models, while the normalized prediction distribution error (NPDE) tests indicated model misspecification in all models. Bayesian forecasting demonstrated a substantially improvement in the model predictability even with one prior observation. Conclusion: Not all published models were satisfactory in prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics; however, Bayesian forecasting improved the predictability considerably with priors, which can be applied to guide polymyxin B dosing recommendations and adjustments for clinicians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00316970
- Volume :
- 77
- Issue :
- 12
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- European Journal of Clinical Pharmacology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 153555975
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00228-021-03193-y