全球供应链环境下的中国竹藤商品出口影响因素分析.

In order to analyze China’s bamboo and rattan commodity export situation and its influencing factors under the global supply chain environment, optimize the industrial structure of bamboo and rattan commodity export and promote the upgrading of forest products international logistics industry, this paper decomposed the time series of the annual export of the six major types of bamboo and rattan commodity value during 2007-2019 by the empirical mode decomposition and analyzed the impacts of various factors on China’s bamboo and rattan commodity exports from three aspects including supply level, market demand, and trade environment by regression analysis. Research showed that according to the empirical mode decomposition results, the fluctuations in the export value of bamboo and rattan raw materials（BRRM）, canned bamboo shoots（CBS）, bamboo charcoal（BC）, bamboo and rattan plaits（BRP） and bamboo and rattan furniture（BRF） were mainly sourced from the long-term trend component, and the fluctuations in the industrialized use of bamboo products（IUBP） were mainly due to the medium and long-term fluctuation component. Stepwise regression analysis showed that the trade environment was the main aspect that affects China’s bamboo and rattan commodity exports. The devaluation of the Chinese currency played a significant role in promoting the export of bamboo charcoal and bamboo and rattan furniture. The rise in international crude oil prices significantly hindered the export of bamboo and rattan raw materials and industrialized utilization of bamboo. The outbreak of the international financial crisis also had negative impact on the export of bamboo and rattan raw materials; meanwhile, the supply level also had a significant impact on the export of bamboo and rattan products. The increase in the import of bamboo and rattan raw materials had a significant hindering effect on the export of industrialized utilization of bamboo and bamboo and rattan plaits, but significantly promoted the export of bamboo charcoal and bamboo and rattan furniture. The expansion of bamboo forest area had a significant promotion effect on the increase in the export value of canned bamboo shoots. Therefore,China’s export value of bamboo and rattan commodities from 2007 to 2019 showed a fluctuating upward trend. The export value of various types of bamboo and rattan commodities fluctuated relatively smoothly. China’s export of bamboo and rattan was most significantly affected by trade environment factors,followed by supply factors. The change in market demand was relatively small,so the export of bamboo and rattan commodities was relatively insignificant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]