Future changes in winter explosive cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere domains from the CORDEX-CORE ensemble.

Future projections in austral winter characteristics of explosive extratropical cyclones (EECs) in three CORDEX Southern Hemisphere domains (Africa-AFR, Australia-AUS and South America-SAM) are investigated. The projections are obtained with a fine resolution (25 km) Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) within the CORDEX-CORE framework driven by three Global Climate Models (GCMs: HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM-1 M) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The cyclone database was obtained using a tracking scheme applied to 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields and EECs are selected using the Sanders and Gyakum criterion. EECs represent ~ 13–17% of the total number of extratropical cyclones during austral winter in the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1995–2014), while both GCMs and RegCM4 ensembles underestimate this percentage. The frequency of EECs is projected to increase in AFR and in SAM domains at the end of the twenty-first century. However, the magnitude of the projected changes needs to be considered with caution because it is smaller than the underestimations in the frequency of EECs of both ensembles in the present climate. EECs in the future will be deeper and faster but with a shorter lifetime. Eady Growth Rate composites, when EECs reach the explosive phase, indicate a less baroclinic large-scale environment in the future. On the other hand, the intensification of precipitation associated with EECs in the future indicates an increase in the contribution of the diabatic processes acting to strengthen the local baroclinicity of the EECs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]