Eritrean central‐highland precipitation and associations with sea‐surface temperature and atmospheric circulation.

This study explores the teleconnection between the boreal summer precipitation for the central highlands of Eritrea, with respect to global sea‐surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric parameters (winds, pressure, humidity, and vertical velocity) as indirect indicators of atmospheric circulation. The central‐highland summer (Jul–Aug) precipitation (1914–2015) is significantly negatively correlated with the Atlantic Niño (ATL3) index. Similarly, with a 2‐month (May) or 1‐month lead (Jun), SSTs over the equatorial Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea) are inversely correlated with the central‐highland summer precipitation. Moreover, the regional atmospheric circulation reveals that the boreal summer precipitation series has a significant positive correlation with the westerly wind over the Gulf of Guinea at 700 hPa and a negative correlation with the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) at 200 hPa. Overall, these findings depict the African Walker circulation cell, whereby a low‐level westerly wind flows from the Gulf of Guinea across central Africa, coupled with a rising branch over north‐eastern Africa, and reverses as an easterly wind at a higher level. These significant correlations between Atlantic Ocean SST as the precipitation‐driving factor enabled the development and validation of an area‐specific seasonal precipitation prediction model, as precipitation in this region is temporally and spatially highly variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]