Electoral Volatility in Latin America, 1932–2018.

This paper examines electoral volatility in Latin America from 1932 to 2018, covering both presidential and lower chamber elections. The paper makes two contributions. First, we present a new, carefully documented dataset about electoral volatility and the vote share of new parties. Scholars interested in both subjects will be able to use the data to explore a wide range of issues. We contribute to the descriptive knowledge about patterns of electoral volatility and the vote share of new parties in Latin America. Second, we contribute to theoretical knowledge about extra-system volatility (the part that results from the emergence of new competitors) and within-system volatility (the part of volatility that stems from aggregate vote transfers among established parties) and to incipient debates about theoretical expectations about differences between extra- and within-system volatility. Poor economic growth, a perception of pervasive corruption, and low levels of partisanship are fertile terrain for new parties (extra-system volatility). Party system polarization and a fragmented party system foster within-system volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]