Projecting complex interactions between forest harvest and succession in the northern Acadian Forest Region.

• Contemporary rates of forest disturbance are high in the northern Acadian Forest. • Aboveground biomass dynamics and timber harvesting were simulated using LANDIS-II. • Projected rates of species turnover were high, 2010–2060, under recent harvest rates. • Co-occurrence patterns likely to shift, destabilizing regional forest types. • Local logging effects on species abundance key to modeling working forest resilience. Preventing declines of native and historically-abundant tree species is an important aspect of sustainable forest management, but predicting future forest composition is challenging when succession does not tend to follow a well-defined path. We evaluated the implications of site-level interactions between timber harvesting and forest succession on the regional landscape dynamics of the complex and species-rich northern Acadian Forest Region. Our expectation was that forest composition would trend away from long-lived and shade-tolerant species, because rates of landscape disturbance from timber harvesting are high relative to historic rates of natural disturbance. We used a novel modeling approach that combined Landsat-derived time series of forest disturbance to inform realistic simulations of timber harvesting across many individual commercial forest landowners using LANDIS-II, and evaluated changes in tree species' distributions and abundance with and without harvesting. Detailed descriptions of initial forest conditions were derived from maps of relative tree species abundance, developed using Landsat satellite imagery, regional inventory data, and an innovative machine learning algorithm. If recent harvest rates persist, simulations suggest timber harvesting will generally be sustainable in our study area; however, projected rates of site-level species turnover were high, predominantly favoring species that were less abundant under the region's natural disturbance regime. As a result, broad-scale patterns of projected species co-occurrence shifted, destabilizing important regional forest types. Our results highlight both the region's capacity for forest growth and the importance of accurately capturing the local effects of land management when projecting forested regions dominated by commercial ownership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]