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Comparative analysis of time series model and machine testing systems for crime forecasting.
- Source :
-
Neural Computing & Applications . Sep2021, Vol. 33 Issue 17, p10621-10636. 16p. - Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Crime forecasting has been one of the most complex challenges in law enforcement today, especially when an analysis tends to evaluate inferable and expanded crime rates, although a few methodologies for subsequent equivalents have been embraced before. In this work, we use a strategy for a time series model and machine testing systems for crime estimation. The paper centers on determining the quantity of crimes. Considering various experimental analyses, this investigation additionally features results obtained from a neural system that could be a significant alternative to machine learning and ordinary stochastic techniques. In this paper, we applied various techniques to forecast the number of possible crimes in the next 5 years. First, we used the existing machine learning techniques to predict the number of crimes. Second, we proposed two approaches, a modified autoregressive integrated moving average model and a modified artificial neural network model. The prime objective of this work is to compare the applicability of a univariate time series model against that of a variate time series model for crime forecasting. More than two million datasets are trained and tested. After rigorous experimental results and analysis are generated, the paper concludes that using a variate time series model yields better forecasting results than the predicted values from existing techniques. These results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 09410643
- Volume :
- 33
- Issue :
- 17
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Neural Computing & Applications
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 151860772
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-020-04998-1