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Systematic global evaluation of accuracy of seasonal climateforecasts for monthly precipitation of JMA/MRI-CPS2 bycomparing with a statistical system using climate indices.
- Source :
-
Geoscientific Model Development Discussions . 7/13/2021, p1-19. 19p. - Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- In this study, we aimed to evaluate the monthly precipitation forecasts of JMA/MRI-CPS2, a global dynamical seasonal climate forecast (Dyn-SCF) system operated in the Japan Meteorological Agency, by comparing them with the forecasts of a statistical SCF (St-SCF) system using climate indices systematically and globally. Accordingly, we developed a new global St-SCF system using 18 climate indices and compared the monthly precipitation of this system with those of JMA/MRI-CPS2. Consequently, it was found that JMA/MRI-CPS2 forecasts are superior to St-SCFs around the equator (10° S-10° N) even for six-month lead forecasts. For one-month lead forecasts, the accuracy of JMA/MRI-CPS2 forecasts was higher than that of St-SCFs when viewed globally. In contrast, for forecasts made two months or longer in advance, St-SCFs had an advantage in global forecasts. In addition to evaluating the accuracy of JMA/MRI-CPS2 forecasts, the slow dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere, not reproduced by the JMA/MRI-CPS2 system, were determined by comparing the evaluations, and it was concluded that this could contribute to improving Dyn-SCF systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *SEASONS
*PRECIPITATION forecasting
*OCEAN dynamics
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19919611
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 151392602
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-131