Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic Before The Latest Restrictions in Turkey by Using SIR Model.

The ongoing CoVID-19 pandemic affected our lives dramatically. Many epidemiological models are developed by scientists to estimate the number of infected individuals and the transmission rate of the CoVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the evolution of COVID-19 in Turkey over the period November 16 and December 9, 2020, using the SIR model. The estimation of the reproduction number is found as 1.38. The peak day of the pandemic based on the period used in the SIR model is estimated as the 13th of January. By that date, around a total number of 3530000 individuals would be affected according to the SIR model and among them, approximately 141000 people would be active cases. In total, approximately 35000 people would die, based on a mortality rate of 1%. These predictions are made according to the scenario, which assumes, the latest restrictions weren't announced by the Turkish Ministry of Health. The findings of this study can be used to understand the characteristics of the pandemic at a certain time and estimate the distribution of the disease but are not suggested for any policy change and strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]