Scenario-based prediction of climate change impacts on building cooling energy consumption with explainable artificial intelligence.

In this paper, we present a newly developed eXplainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model to analyze the impacts of climate change on the cooling energy consumption (E c) in buildings, predict long-term E c under the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios, and explain the underlying reasons behind the predictions. Such analyses and future predictions are imperative to allow decision-makers and stakeholders to accomplish climate-resilient and sustainable development goals by leveraging the power of meaningful and trustworthy projections and insights. We demonstrated that the XAI is capable of predicting the E c under future climate scenarios with high accuracy ( R 2 > 0. 9) and reveals the critical inflection points of the daily average outdoor air temperature (T a) beyond which the E c increase exponentially. We applied the XAI model for residential and commercial buildings in hot–humid and mixed–humid climate regions to quantify the incremental impacts of climate change on E c under the different SSPs. The XAI-based analysis concluded positive and persistent incremental changes in the E c from 2020 to 2100 under all future SSP scenarios, with the maximum incremental impact of 24.5%, 33.3%, 57.8%, and 87.2% in hot–humid and 37.1%, 47.5%, 85.3%, and 121% in mixed–humid climate regions under the sustainable green energy (SSP126), business-as-usual (SSP245), challenges to adaptation (SSP370), and increased reliance on fossil fuels (SSP585) scenarios, respectively. Potential increases in the E c in future climates could have significant adverse impacts on the local and regional economy if necessary adaptation and mitigation measures are not implemented a priori. • XAI predicts building cooling energy demand under climate change. • XAI reveals the critical reason for increase in cooling energy consumption. • Space cooling energy demand is predicted to increase exponentially after 2050. • Climate change impacts on cooling energy needs are worse in residential buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]