Autoregressive Integration Moving Average (ARIMA) Model for Prices of Selected Grains in the South West Nigeria.

Background: Price serves as signals of relative scarcity as well as abundance of a given agricultural product. Prices of agricultural products vary from month to month and even from day to day and this constitutes a source of risk to farmers whose livelihood depends on good pricing of their products. Method: This study was conducted to identify pattern of price dynamics and to develop model for price dynamics of beans, yellow maize and local rice using monthly price data of grains from the National Bureau of Statistics (2006-2015). Result: The rk of the beans followed a regular decline ranging from 0.4035 to 1 while those (rk) of yellow maize and local rice follow non regular decline with the range 0.1448-1(yellow maize) and 0.2945-1 (local rice) thus indicating that the data are non-stationary. The corrected Akaike information criteria (AICC) and other information obtained for the ARIMA1,2,2 were higher than those of ARIMA2,2,2. The AICC obtained for the ARIMA1,2,2 are 958.422 (beans), 1178.169 (yellow Maize) and 1211.778 (local rice). The ARIMA2,2,2 was thence favored above ARIMA1,2,2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]