Absorbent Porous Paper Reveals How Earthquakes Could be Mitigated.

Earthquakes nucleate when large amounts of elastic energy, stored in the earth's crust, are suddenly released due to abrupt sliding over a fault. Fluid injections can reactivate existing seismogenic faults and induce/trigger earthquakes by increasing fluid pressure. Here we develop an analogous experimental system of simultaneously loaded and wetted absorbent porous paper to quantify theoretically the process of wetting‐induced earthquakes. This strategy allows us to gradually release the stored energy by provoking low intensity tremors. We identify the key parameters that control the outcome of the applied injection strategy, which include the initial stress state, fault segmentation, and segment‐activation rate. Subsequent injections, initiated at high stress levels, can drive the system faster toward its instability point, nucleating a large earthquake. Starting at low stress levels, however, they can reduce the magnitude of the natural event by at least one unit. Plain Language Summary: Understanding natural and anthropogenic seismicity is a major scientific challenge. Here we present a novel analogue fault model using absorbent porous paper, which gives new insights on earthquake mitigation. When scaled to in‐situ conditions, the porous paper model represents a natural seismic rupture of magnitude Mw = 5.9. By progressively wetting it, we simulate fluid injections in the earth's crust and draw analogies to large‐scale industrial projects. In our experiments, each injection is accompanied by tremors, which progressively release energy and modify the energy budget of the system. Without precise knowledge of the fault properties, we risk driving the system faster toward an unexpected large seismic event. However, provided that the model's key parameters–fault segmentation, segment‐activation rate, and stress state–are well known or controlled, the natural rupture can be mitigated by at least one unit. We expect that these results will facilitate risk reduction in current fluid injection projects and inspire earthquake mitigation strategies for real tectonic faults. Key Points: From an energetic point of view, absorbent porous paper can be an ideal, low‐cost surrogate rock material for studying induced seismicitySegmentation of faults and sequential fluid injection in each segment can mitigate potential earthquakes by at least one order of magnitudeWe show that fault segmentation, segment‐activation rate and stress state predominantly control the result of applied injection strategies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]