Sustainable development pathways of hydropower in China: Interdisciplinary qualitative analysis and scenario-based system dynamics quantitative modeling.

As a low-cost, low-carbon, and clean renewable energy, hydropower is crucial to carbon emissions reduction and climate change mitigation. Compared with non-steady and highly volatile renewable energy, flexible hydropower can help secure the reliable operation of the grid. However, development cost increase, resettlement and environmental issues have recently hindered China's hydropower development. This paper first reviews the history and current status of hydropower development in China, integrates the economy-energy-environment system, the water-energy-food nexus, and socio-hydrology theory to analyze the complex influence mechanism of hydropower development, and identifies driving factors of hydropower development through a cost-benefit analysis. Then, the quantitative system dynamics (SD) model of hydropower development is constructed based on the interdisciplinary qualitative analysis. Combining incentive policies and technological progress, four scenarios are set. The multi-scenario prediction results and sensitivity analysis results of the SD model indicate that incentive policies can enhance the attractiveness of hydropower investment and significantly promote long-term stable hydropower development, while technological progress can improve the efficiency and carbon emissions reduction benefits of hydropower. Based on the comparative analysis of these results, specific policy recommendations for promoting sustainable development of green hydropower in China are proposed in terms of four aspects: the hydropower development concept, cooperation mechanism, policy mechanism, and technological progress. Image 1 • The influence mechanism of hydropower development is analyzed systematically. • Analytical frame integrates water, energy, economy, energy, environment, society. • System dynamics model is constructed based on an interdisciplinary analysis. • Multi-scenario results indicate different impacts of policy and technology. • Policy recommendations for sustainable hydropower development are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]