Pathways for climate change adaptations in arid and semi-arid regions.

Climate variability and change coupled with small landholdings, low land productivity and water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions contribute to environmental degradation, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased vulnerability to the rural communities. With the aid of the fuzzy cognitive maps constructed by 427 community groups with 4–5 members in each group, drawn from 96 villages in 12 districts of arid and semi-arid India, the paper evaluates the effectiveness of various adaptation pathways. The ongoing adaptations in arid and semi-arid India face adaptation deficits. The FCM-based simulations revealed that integrated adaptation measures that embrace nature-based solutions, including integrated water resource management, natural farming-assisted soil rejuvenation, and improved agricultural productivity are most likely to enhance the resilience of small and marginalised farming communities to climate variability and change. Facilitation of such adaptation measures requires inclusive and adaptive local institutions, sufficient financial assistance, and climate information services. Besides, gender-nuanced, inclusive, and adaptive governance and processes would be helpful for the implementation of appropriate adaptation interventions in arid and semi-arid drylands worldwide. Hence policy-makers must enable polycentric and adaptive governance, and inclusive institutions and processes. The emphasis on multiple factors in a socio-ecological system often makes it difficult to understand the critical role of a particular factor. However, the FCM-based simulations in this study helped us overcome such limitations. Image 1 • FCM-based simulations used to examine the effectiveness of current adaptations. • Current adaptations face adaptation deficit and provide limited resilience. • Integrated adaptations embracing nature-based solutions could provide resilience. • Lack of finance, technology, and locally relevant information are the key barriers. • Polycentric-adaptive governance and inclusive institutions & processes are crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]