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Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models.
- Source :
-
Applied Mathematical Modelling . Feb2021, Vol. 90, p995-1008. 14p. - Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- • We have solved the SIR transmission-dynamics equations analytically with (ESIR model) and without (D model) recovery assumptions. • Our models can characterize the evolution of a pandemic at its different stages (exponential and normal phases, etc). • Our models can be extended to describe additional spatial-time effects such as the release of lockdown measures. • Similar results from ESIR and D models suggest that most susceptibles become infected, asymptomatic and eventually recover. • Similar trends suggest a common pandemic evolution with universal parameters. Several analytical models have been developed in this work to describe the evolution of fatalities arising from coronavirus COVID-19 worldwide. The Death or 'D' model is a simplified version of the well-known SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) compartment model, which allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically by assuming no recovery during the pandemic. By fitting to available data, the D-model provides a precise way to characterize the exponential and normal phases of the pandemic evolution, and it can be extended to describe additional spatial-time effects such as the release of lockdown measures. More accurate calculations using the extended SIR or ESIR model, which includes recovery, and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations – also developed in this work – predict similar trends and suggest a common pandemic evolution with universal parameters. The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries shows the typical behavior in concord with our model trends, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, typically asymmetric with respect to the pandemic peak. The fact that the D and ESIR models predict similar results – without and with recovery, respectively – indicates that COVID-19 is a highly contagious virus, but that most people become asymptomatic (D model) and eventually recover (ESIR model). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0307904X
- Volume :
- 90
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Applied Mathematical Modelling
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 147020974
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2020.10.019