DIŞ TİCARET VE CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGESİ TÜRKİYE'NİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMESİ ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ MİDİR? 1984-2016 DÖNEMİNE AİT BİR REGRESYON ANALİZİ UYGULAMASI

The study aims to examine the effects of foreign trade and current account balance on economic growth for 1984- 2016 period. As a result of the least squares method and regression analysis for the period, it is determined that both foreign trade and current account balance have negative effects on the growth rate. According to the least squares method 31% of the changes in growth are explained by current account balance and 39% are explained by the balance of foreign trade. According to the model with dummy variable that is included in order to reveal the impacts of economic and social events while 43% of the changes in growth are explained by current account balance, 50% are explained by foreign trade balance. Three models are estimated in the study. In order to measure the impact of economic and social events, a dummy variable is added, and the fourth model is estimated. In conclusion, it is found that for sustainable growth to be attained with current account surplus or lower current account deficit, domestic savings need to be increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]