Power sector analysis of the BBIN sub‐region with a spatially disaggregated dynamic power generation mix model.

This study evaluates the optimal expansion of the electricity sector of the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal) sub‐region with a detailed analysis of unevenly distributed resources and electricity demand, by developing a multi‐regional dynamic power sector optimization model, characterized by 27 nodes, 45 fuel transport lines, and 63 transmission lines in hourly temporal resolution. Scenarios developed in this paper assess the impact of 2 °C Paris agreement on production, transportation, and consumption of indigenous resources like coal and gas, the share of renewables and nuclear in the power generation mix, the utilization of huge untapped hydro resources through an expansion of cross‐border transmission lines. The simulation results show that hydro, wind, nuclear, and PV will be the dominant power sources, thus reducing the current share of coal, under carbon regulation scenario. The requirements of PV exceed its estimated commercially exploitable potential in most of the nodes in the nuclear‐restricted scenario. Expanding cross‐border transmission capacity will be an effective way to exploit untapped hydro resources so that Bangladesh and India can import power from Bhutan and Nepal. Although there is a slight increase in coal demand in the future, capacity expansion of fuel networks is not economical under adopted emission levels. © 2020 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]