全球碳转移网络的解构与影响因素分析.

Based on the latest Environmental Accounts and World Input-Output Tables of WIOD, this article uses the MRIO-SNA model to construct a global carbon transfer network, visually analyzes the characteristics of the global carbon transfer network from the view of 'relationship', and used the QAP method to reveal the main reasons for the formation of the global carbon transfer network. The results show that: 1 The global carbon transfer network develops in an unbalanced way, presenting a 'core-periphery' structure; there exists a structural imbalance between supply and demand, with a few countries producing the majority of carbon emissions. China gradually becomes the center of the production-based global carbon emissions network, and China' s position in the consumption-based carbon emissions network is also rising. The United States and Germany remain at the center of consumption-based global carbon emissions network. 2 From the perspective of individual network characteristics, the network status of each country is relatively stable. ln 2014, the top three countries in in-degree centrality were China, Russia, and Germany. The top three countries in out-degree centrality were the United States, Germany, and China. Among them, China's in-degree centrality has always been lower than the out-degree centrality, indicating that China mainly participates in the global carbon transfer network through supply rather than consumption. 3 Block model analysis shows that developing countries headed by China belong to the bidirectional spillover block while the United States and other developed countries constitute main beneficial block. The spillovers between blocks are greater than the spillovers within the blocks, and there are obvious carbon transfer relationships between developed and developing countries. 4 The QAP analysis shows that the influence of geographical location and cultural background on the spatial correlation of carbon emissions is weakening, and factors such as the division of global value chains and environmental regulations gradually dominate the formation of carbon transfer networks. This study attempts to provide a direction for the formulation of future carbon reduction policies. Countries need to perceive global carbon emissions from the new perspective of 'relationship' and abandon the biased rhetoric of 'China climate threat'. Global carbon reduction should fully rely on the consideration of the spatial correlation and the differences of industrial structure and economic level between countries. It is necessary for countries to take ' common but differentiated responsibilities' of coordinated carbon reduction based on the dual control of ' quantity' and ' relationship'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]