More robust changes in the East Asian winter monsoon from 1.5 to 2.0°C global warming targets.

This study investigates changes in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming (1.5 and 2.0GW) targets using multi‐model results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). It is found that the surface air temperature increases over the Asian continent and Pacific, and the precipitation increases over the northern Asian continent in winter during the 1.5 and 2.0GW periods. For the 1.5GW period, large uncertainties can be found in the projection of EAWM system members (i.e., Siberian high, Aleutian low, low‐level winds over eastern Asia, East Asian trough [EAT] and East Asian jet stream [EAJS]). For the 2.0GW period, more than two‐thirds of the models show that the Siberian high, the EAT and the meridional shear of the EAJS are weakened, but the Aleutian low is intensified. In addition, the intensified Aleutian low enhances low‐level northwesterly wind along the coast of northeastern Asia. Compared to those in the 1.5GW period, the EAWM system members show more robust changes during the 2.0GW period, except for the low‐level winds at mid‐latitude eastern Asia. These conclusions are suitable for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]