Heavy and persistent rainfall leads to brood reduction and nest failure in a passerine bird.

The process of reproduction is a sensitive period for bird offspring, since they are exposed to environmental conditions for several weeks. Within the long reproductive period, adult birds do not only have to maintain their own body condition, they also have to ensure nutritional needs of their nestlings. In the worst case, if weather conditions are very harsh, breeding is not successful and fails. This suggests that weather conditions might be an important driver of breeding success. Here, we studied the effect of weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) on the survival of 350 nests of great tits Parus major during nestling period in six years (2010-2015). We used traditional generalized linear mixed model (binomial response variable) and a dedicated survival-analysis program (MARK) to analyze the data. The two approaches allowed us to highlight and compare the effect of weather conditions on a fine (nestling survival) and coarse (nest fate) scale. Both methods showed that precipitation explained most of the variation in individual nestling and overall nest survival during the 15-day nestling period. Heavy and persistent rainfall did not only lead to brood reduction, it ultimately also led to losses of the entire brood. Likely causes were the negative effects of precipitation on thermoregulation, food availability and predation risk. However, while reduced food availability most likely might have led to brood reduction through selective individual nestling death, predation might have resulted in total nest failures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]