基于 Logistic 回归的耕地数量演变及其空间要素边际效应分析.

Evolution of cultivated land needs to be clarified in the driving mechanism for the sustainable land use in China. Most studies generally focused on the relationship between the evolutionary data and the driving mechanism in the evolution of cultivated land use. However, research on the drivers of marginal impact is rare, such as the spatial factor density that represented by the POI points. There can be a tipping point of marginal impact, when the quantity reaches a specific region, in the distance to the main road represented by the human factors. In this paper, the marginal effect analysis was used to make a preliminary evaluation, taking Southern Hubei as an example. Landsat remote sensing images were selected for the interpretation data of three periods from the year of 2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2010-2015, including 15 types of POI spatial data. Firstly, the evaluation system of spatial factors was constructed from three aspects, including Euclidean distance indices, POI kernel density indices and locational indices. The Spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land was systematically analyzed, together with dynamic change in the area from 2000 to 2015. Secondly, the principal component analysis was used to integrate the driving factors for the change of cultivated land. The extracted principal components were selected to construct the multiple Logistic regression models, including interaction terms. Lastly, an emphasis was put on the bidirectional marginal effect of spatial elements in the driving mechanism, and the change rule that illustrated by the graph of marginal effect. The results indicated that: (1) The evolution types of cultivated land showed the agglomeration of the same type, while the specific conversion type strongly depended on the spillover effect of neighboring land use. There was obvious evolution trend from cultivated land to construction, but others were not, possibly due to the influence from the macro-control policy of land use. From 2000 to 2015, the proportion of cultivated land converted to construction land increased from 28% to 44%, and then jumped to 96%, mainly concentrated in areas around towns and along major roads. (2) Marginal effects of spatial factors depend on types of cultivated land and periods. From 2000 to 2015, there was a gradual decrease in the variation range of marginal effect for different conversion types of cultivated land, while the homogeneous intersection point moved in the same direction for marginal effect curves of different transformation types. The dominated marginal effect of natural location factors was on the conversion of cultivated land to construction land, and cultivated land to water area, when the spatial elements of POI were different values. (3) The curve of spatial factors implied that there was a critical value of marginal effect. In the range of critical values, marginal effect changed significantly with the spatial factors, but outside the range, marginal effect tended to be stable. The qualitative and quantitative analysis on the marginal effect of spatial factors can offer a theoretical reference for the optimization of cultivated land layout, and the formulation of regional coordinated development strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]