我国桑园时空格局演变特征及驱动机制研究.

【Objective】 The present paper aimed to study how the project named ‘Sericulture Moving from East to West’ affect the supply-side structural reform of the sericulture industry. 【Method】the changes of mulberry fields in different provinces 10 years before and after the implementation of the policy(from 1996 to 2016) were analyzed. Also, combined with natural, social, economic data from 1999 to 2016, this paper explored spatial structure characteristics and driven forces of mulberry area changes using spatial analysis and mathematical statistics. 【Result】(i) The area of mulberry fields in the eastern China decreased linearly, 16482.81 ha every year, with-4.94 % since dynamic degree, since 2006 the year implementing moving sericulture production area from the east to west policy, while the area of mulberry fields increased linearly, with 7924.69 ha every year and 1.96 % dynamic degree in ten years;(ii) The spatial model revealed that from 1996 to 2016, the center of mulberry field transferred from north to south, with a clear trend of diverting to the southwestern part of China;(iii) Principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that natural, population and economy, as three major driving forces had significant impact on the area change of mulberry fields. Here, natural factor was the annual rainfall. Population factor included the number of people aged from 15 to 64, and the number of people old than 65. Economic factor was the value of secondary industry. 【Conclusion】Under the combined driving of policy guidance, natural conditions, population structure and economic development, the spatial and temporal pattern of mulberry plantation area in China has changed significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]