INFLUÊNCIA DE VARIÁVEIS CLIMÁTICAS E AMBIENTAIS NA DISTRIBUIÇÃO POTENCIAL DO LUTZOMYIA LONGIPALPIS (PSYCHODIDAE: PHLEBOTOMINAE) NO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO, BRASIL.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a disease transmitted by phlebotomine sandflies, in a complex interaction with the nosogeography entity. This work is a geographical approach of VL in the state of São Paulo, supported by Ecological Niche Modeling. The goal is to verify the correlation between the spatial distribution of the sandfly Lutzomyia longipalpis and environmental variables, and verify the overlay distribution of reported human cases and final model of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). Data reports of the occurrence of Lu. longipalpis by municipalities from 1997-2016 were collected. Also environmental data from bioclimatic variables (BIOCLIM) in a 1km spatial resolution were collected. In the state, some variables were correlated with the sandfly distribution, such as: day-to-night ascilations in temperature (4%), maximum monthly temperature occurrence over a given year (16.1%), total precipitation during the driest month (22.7%), variation in monthly precipitation totals over the course of the year (16.7%), total precipitation that prevails during the wettest quarter (21.8%), total precipitation that prevails during the driest quarter (10.3%) and total precipitation that prevails during the coldest quarter (8.3%). The data clearly indicate a likelihood of expansion from the center of the state into Campinas and Piracicaba (east). Regarding the first expansion axis in the state, from center to the west, it is suggested working with the settlements, which can be a source of a specific case of VL expansion, the "new rural", enclosing the rural-urban-new rural hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]