Variations in the environment, energy and macroeconomic interdependencies and related renewable energy transition policies based on sensitive categorization of countries in Africa.

The disparities in development levels of countries in Africa necessitate correspondingly sensitive categorization approaches because effective renewable energy-related (RER) decisions, policy-making, and subsequent implementation hinges on workable categorization indices. However, studies on sensitive categorization approaches for energy-environment-economy (3E) interdependencies for Africa is rare. This study uses a sensitive characteristic-driven approach to explore the interdependencies in 3E indicators for carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions, renewable energy consumption (REC), fossil fuel energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), population, and gross fixed capital formation in 39 African countries. Further, we forecast the dollar values of policy innovations necessary to facilitate the transition to 100% renewable energies for 2030. Using balanced data spanning 2000–2014, the empirical results from the panel vector error-correction model show long-run Granger causality in CO 2 emissions, REC and GDP models for Africa, but no evidence of such relationship was found four sub-panels. The results depict varied individual unidirectional and bidirectional causalities among the variables in each panel. Evidence from variance decomposition analysis show that ∼93% of innovations required to achieve renewable energy-led Africa must happen in REC. Results from the high precision own-data-driven forecast puts total energy demand in Africa at ∼25QBtu in 2030 with ∼40% from renewables. Estimates of the dollar value of innovations depict that it would cost Africa ∼ US$3367.2 billion [in 2030 only] to transition to 100% renewables. We find RER investment (RERIs), in billion US$, ranging from 2.69 to 1274.12 for seven sub-panels. Yet, the panel of Moderate Lower Middle-Income Economies need not to make further investments because their existing REIRs could be enough to help the region reach 100% renewables by 2030. The findings herein imply that RER policies in Africa must be intensified to achieve 100% renewable energy target. A chord showing short-run individual unidirectional causalities running from various independent variables to renewable energy consumption (REC) for Africa panel. FFEC, GDP, POT, GFCF, and CO 2 represent fossil fuel energy consumption, gross domestic product, total population, gross fixed capital formations, and carbon dioxide emissions, respectively. The length and area of REC indicate the fraction of the sum of Chi-square statistics [see Table S2] derived from utilizing the Wald Test to test for the presence of short-run causalities (SRCs) in the REC model relative to SRCs identified for all models in the Africa panel. All five independent variables individually Granger cause REC but the magnitude [based on the Chi-square statistics] of the causality ranked in ascending order are CO 2 , GFCF, FFEC, POT, and GDP. Image 1 • Energy-environment-economy interdependencies are explored for panels of sensitively grouped African countries. • We find no long-run relationship in CO 2 and GDP models for four panels. • Renewable energy contributes ∼40% of the ∼25QBtu total energy demand in 2030. • Energy investments of ∼US$3367.2 billion is required to achieve 100% renewables in 2030 for Africa. • The findings imply intensifying current renewable energy policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]