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A change-point model for the r-largest order statistics with applications to environmental and financial data.

Authors :
Silva, Wyara Vanesa Moura e
Nascimento, Fernando Ferraz do
Bourguignon, Marcelo
Source :
Applied Mathematical Modelling. Jun2020, Vol. 82, p666-679. 14p.
Publication Year :
2020

Abstract

• A new change-point model for the r -largest order statistics is proposed. • The proposed model can be used for any application that involves an extreme time series with a structural break. • A Bayesian adaptation for the estimation of the optimal number of order statistics is proposed. • Simulations and real data sets shows the good performance of this new model. • The application in three examples verifies the performance of the new model is better than that the usual model. This study makes a new contribution to extreme value theory by proposing a change-point model of the distribution of the r -larger order statistics. In some situations, using only the maxima of grouped data results in a small sample size that may require a larger dataset. In this sense, using the joint distribution of the r -largest order statistics provides more information and, consequently, better estimators. We perform a comprehensive simulation to show the advantage of this method over other competitive models that approach the change-point model in extremes. Finally, the proposed model is fitted to river quota data (environmental data) and NASDAQ daily returns data (financial data) to demonstrate its potential for practical application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
0307904X
Volume :
82
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Applied Mathematical Modelling
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
142335231
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2020.01.064