Patosistema Solanum lycopersicum-Phytophthora infestans en Chapingo, México. Esperado, observado y simulado.

Phytophthora infestans is affected by biotic and abiotic factors that can vary its pathogenicity. In the highlands of Mexico, the genetic variability of P. infestans, low temperatures, high relative humidity and light favor its expression and influence the efficacy of the infection. This work analyzed the progress of infection of P. infestans with respect to the expected, observed and simulated during two field cycles in Chapingo, Mexico, with the objective of documenting and quantifying the progress of foliar infection by P. infestans in different lines of Tomato with different levels of resistance. As well as validate a predictive model. With the record of 10 years of meteorological data, five situations were predicted with four to ten cycles of infection from 8 to 13 h each. Compared to the predictions, the observed effect of area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) and its components (RAUDPC and RaRAUDPC) were significant, with low coefficient of variation. It is concluded that among the expected, observed and simulated scenarios there is a close relationship to predict epidemics of P. infestans. This confirms that LATEBLIGHT is useful for simulating and predicting the late blight epidemic, under Chapingo atmospheric conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]