中国农林生物质发电产业现行电价补贴效果研究.

(1) Background--The agricultural and forestry biomass power generation industry is a typical emerging industry'. It is highly valued by all levels of the department. Therefore, they have implemented support policies such as electricity price subsidies. Since the subsidy policy implemented, the agricultural and forestry' biomass power generation industry' has developed a lot, but the development rate is still slow. The industry still has problems such as low farmers' participation and imperfect enterprise development. Can the current electricity price subsidy really promote this industry? (2) Methods--From the perspective of subsidy policy of biomass energy price, this paper used the system dynamics method to build a simulation model of agricultural and forestry biomass power generation industry' integrating government, enteiprises, middlemen and farmers with Vensim DSS tools. Then, based on the existing policies, this paper designed different policy scenarios and compared the effects of different policy scenarios based on the field survey data of typical enterprises, middlemen and farmers in the agricultural and forestry biomass power generation industry during 2017-2018, so as to evaluate the implementation effect of China's forest biomass power generation industry' policy, and to optimize the policy according to the limitations of the existing policies. (3) Results--The results show that compared with the no-policy scenario, the current subsidy policy can slow down the loss rate of agricultural and forestry biomass power generation enterprises, and increase the net profit of the industry'. However, the current subsidy is not effective for farmers and intermediate entities, and because the policy amount is too small, it is impossible to fundamentally reverse the loss status of power generation enterprises. If the policy is implemented according to the current method, the enterprises' loss rate will increase and the net profit of the industry will also drop sharply when the subsidy implementation period ends and the release is stopped. Therefore, the implementation quota and implementation method of the current subsidy policy are not conducive to the development of the entire industry'. Through the simulation of different policy scenarios, it is found that if the subsidy quota is increased to 0. 573 yuan/kWh, and the 2% subsidy withdrawal method is adopted, the overall profits of each main body and industry' can be increased. (4) Conclusions and Discussions--Through the comparison of different policy scenarios, the policy optimization plan is as follows; Increasing the subsidy quota appropriately and adopting the 2% subsidy withdrawal method. Combined with the huge subsidy gap and financial budget constraints in China, the following suggestions are proposed: (1) To guide and implement diversified investments to broaden funding sources and establish multi-channel financing mechanisms; (2) To designe the biomass subsidy withdrawal mechanism to improve policy efficiency, and adhere to the principle of "focusing on planning, approval, and supervision"; (3) To increase the subjects of policy incentives and appropriately grant subsidies to middlemen and farmers in accordance with certain standards; (4) To reduce the cost of transportation links and raw material processing; (5) To promote the renewable energy quota system and the construction of the green certificate trading system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]