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Constraints on long term warming in a climate mitigation scenario.
- Source :
-
Earth System Dynamics Discussions . 2020, p1-19. 19p. - Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Cumulative emissions budgets and net-zero emission target dates are often used to frame climate negotiations (Frameet al., 2014; Millar et al., 2016; Van Vuuren et al., 2016; Rogelj et al., 2015b; Matthews et al., 2012). However, their utilityfor near-term policy decisions is confounded by an uncertainties in future negative emissions capacity (Fuss et al., 2014; Smith et al., 2016; Larkin et al., 2018; Anderson and Peters, 2016) and in long term Earth System response to climate forcers(Rugenstein et al., 2019; Knutti et al., 2017; Armour, 2017) which may impact the utility of an indefinite carbon budget if peak temperatures occur significantly after net zero emissions are achieved, the likelihood of which in a simple model is conditionalon prior assumptions about the long term dynamics of the Earth System. Here we illustrate that the risks associated with nearterm positive emissions can be framed using a definite cumulative emissions budget with a 2040 time horizon, allowing thenecessity and scope for negative emissions deployment later in the century to be better informed by observed warming overcoming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *CLIMATE change mitigation
*TIME perspective
*TIME management
*SYSTEM dynamics
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 21904995
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Earth System Dynamics Discussions
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 142136755
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-82