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Dim sums.

Source :
Economist. 8/21/2004, Vol. 372 Issue 8389, p60-61. 2p. 1 Graph.
Publication Year :
2004

Abstract

The article focuses on economic data and conditions in China. One of the biggest problems is that China's official figures are not seasonally adjusted. That means resorting to year-on-year growth rates which, by definition, tend to be slow in picking up recent changes. In America and most other developed economies, by contrast, official data is seasonally adjusted, which allows analysts to compare month-on-month changes and quarter-on-quarter changes. In a desperate bid to throw more light on China's economy, many foreign investment banks have been trying to crunch their own seasonally adjusted numbers. These suggest an economy that is slowing much more rapidly than is indicated by official figures. The 12-month rate of growth in China's industrial output slowed to a still-steaming 15.5% in July from 18% at the end of last year. However, Lehman's seasonally adjusted figures show output in the three months to July growing at an annual rate of less than 1% compared with the previous three months. Despite their seasonal adjustment, these numbers look too volatile, and thus may exaggerate the deceleration. But the economy has clearly slowed by more than the headline numbers suggest.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
00130613
Volume :
372
Issue :
8389
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Economist
Publication Type :
Periodical
Accession number :
14198337