基于系统动力学的应急物资动员潜力评估.

The mobilization potential of emergency materials plays an important role for the response to emergency materials under emergencies in China. This paper measures the emergency materials mobilization potential by the final product of the emergency materials after the conversion of raw materials, and establishes the emergency materials mobilization potential evaluation model using system dynamics through analyzing the internal feedback relationship of each sub-module that constitutes the emergency materials mobilization potential. Taking China's petroleum industry chain as the actual background, and the mobilization potential of refined oil as an example, using the idea of "scenario-response", this paper expands the idea of assessing the state value of mobilization potential, quantitatively assesses mobilization potential of refined oil from the aspects of total amount, a certain time point and a certain period of time. The results show that when the demand is at a low level, the reserves of crude oil and refined oil have the greatest contribution to the refined oil mobilization potential. With the increase of demand, the contribution of the company's supernormal production is gradually increasing. In addition, the four factors of the actual production capacity of emergency materials, the amount of crude oil or refined oil reserves and crude oil conversion coefficient have the greatest impact on the refined oil mobilization potential, so it should focus on improving the actual production capacity of emergency materials, the amount of raw materials or final product reserves and the productive efficiency of emergency materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]